The race for the White House and the battle for control of Congress continues to intensify as the November election approaches. In the Winter Issue of the Bulletin, we discussed the issues and personalities at the center of this election cycle. In this issue of The Bulletin, we explore the candidates remaining in the Presidential race.

AND THEN THERE WERE TWO...
The race for the major parties’ nomination prior to “Super Tuesday” last March was a battle of establishment candidates vs. insurgents, who were attempting to galvanize previously untouched constituencies to garner support. In each party, one candidate held a distinct monetary advantage in addition to the support of key political figures and party officials. In the quest for the Republican nomination, Gov. George W. Bush had the support of the majority of Members of Congress as well as state and local GOP officials. In addition, he raised over $70 million in campaign funds, which was more than the other candidates combined. On the Democratic side, as the sitting Vice President in a two term Administration, Vice President Al Gore enjoyed the benefits of incumbency in his steamroll to the nomination. As a result, Gore received endorsements of key constituencies including: labor, the Congressional Black Caucus, Democratic Governors and other Democratic officials.

The insurgents in each party----former Democratic Senator Bill Bradley, Republican Senator John McCain (R-AZ), and Ambassador Alan Keyes---forged strong campaigns that mobilized grassroots support among their core constituencies as well as a large number of Independents. Each of the aforementioned candidates, at one point or another, scored surprising victories or had unexpectedly strong showings in primaries as a result of their respective strategies. Ambassador Keyes, who is still seeking the Republican nomination, has mobilized support nationwide despite limited media exposure. His strong showing in the debates and consistently strong finishes in the primaries, including a third place finish amidst a crowded field in Iowa, have placed him in an influential position heading into this summer’s Republican convention.

Of all the insurgent candidates, John McCain had the strongest showing in the primary season. His message of campaign finance reform combined with his background as a war hero garnered support from Independents and Reagan democrats, which led to victories in Michigan, New Hampshire, Arizona, and other states with open primaries. What led to the reduction of the field to its current status, however, was a combination of several factors. On the Democratic side, Bradley’s message failed to resonate with the Democratic base to overcome Gore’s incumbency advantage. On the Republican side, several factors combined to thwart McCain’s efforts. These factors included: Bush’s fundraising advantage, Bush’s support among Republican Governors, Members of Congress and Christian conservatives, and losses in key states with closed primaries.

RUNNING MATES: THE SPECULATION BEGINS
Now that the likely nominees have distinguished themselves, speculation begins as to who will join the Republican and Democratic ticket as the Vice-Presidential running mate. With polls showing only a slight separation between Gore and Bush, and with the leader in these polls changing on a regular basis, the selection of a Vice-Presidential candidate is crucial. With that in mind, a number of potential running mates have been proposed by the media, each of whom brings a cadre of support from key geographic regions and/or key constituencies. Bush is seeking a candidate who will appeal to minorities. Gore is seeking a running mate that will mobilize independents and other swing constituencies. According to Washington insiders, each candidate has a long list of running mates to choose from each of which could sway the election, some more than others. The probable running mates are listed below:

Bush --- Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge, Florida Senator Connie Mack, Elizabeth Dole, Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson, Conservative commentator Bill Bennett, Oklahoma Congressman J.C. Watts, Senator John McCain, and Ambassador Alan Keyes . (Source: Dunham, Richard. Business Week Online. March 13, 2000, and Roll Call Newspaper)

Gore ---- Indiana Governor Evan Bayh, California Governor Gray Davis, California Senator Dianne Feinstein, Illinois Senator Richard Durbin, Maryland Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, and even former rival Bill Bradley (Source: ibid)

The final running mate choice for each party will be culled from this list or others based on a number of factors. One major factor that will determine the running mate in each party will be who can bolster a perceived weakness in the candidate’s support base. For instance, if the polls illustrate that Bush or Gore is trailing in a region, they may more likely choose a Governor or other elected official from that region as a running mate.

THE BATTLE LINES ARE DRAWN: A VIEW OF STRATEGY
Of equal importance to choosing a viable running mate, is employing a sound strategy that promotes a legislative agenda that resonates with the American people while shedding light upon their opponent’s weaknesses or inadequacies. The combination of these components is becoming evident in the Bush and Gore campaigns even at this early stage of the campaign cycle. A visit to the official website of the Gore campaign illustrates that Gore’s legislative agenda has three basic tenets: improving education, expanding access to affordable health care, and enacting campaign finance reform. Over the past month he has proposed policies and legislation that address these concerns. If elected President, he states that he would continue the work of the current Administration to reduce class sizes, increase technology available in the classroom, and provide more federal funding to public schools. In regards to the issues of health care and campaign finance reform, Gore has proposed reforms to the healthcare system that he claims would increase access to healthcare for children and the elderly. He has embraced campaign finance reform through his well-publicized challenge to Bush to abandon negative TV ads in favor of more debates and “open” meetings with registered Independents.

Regarding more abstract elements of the campaign strategy, including character and leadership, Gore plans to portray himself as the candidate who will continue to promote the legislative agenda of the Clinton Administration. However, while aligning himself with Clinton from a policy standpoint to benefit from the support that Clinton has on the issues, Gore will stress that on issues of character he is unlike his current boss.

Based on press clippings and campaign material, one can surmise that his attacks on Bush will be structured in a manner as to portray Bush as an ineffective Governor of Texas. Early campaign ads and press releases from the Gore camp have attempted to show that Governor Bush’s leadership has been ineffective on issues related to the environment and education. He will also attempt to challenge Bush on certain legislative issues in Texas that may have been passed by state legislators despite Bush’s opposition or insistence. Moreover, the Gore camp will attempt to show that many of the successes Bush takes credit for were achieved in spite of his opposition and not because if his support.

The theme of the Bush campaign, as evident in the name of his policy pamphlet, “A Fresh Start for America”, is the ideal of change. To further solidify this slogan, on the official campaign website, he states that he is the only candidate who can bring reforms to Washington because he is not a part of the establishment. Adopting the title, “A Reformer with Results,” Bush plans to introduce legislation and policies on key issues facing the American people that encourage changes or improvement to established systems such as Medicare, Social Security, and Education. One of his primary campaign promises is a series of reforms to the tax system including: doubling of the tax credit received by parents of dependent children and an elimination of the death tax. He proposes to maintain the current Social Security benefit level given to seniors and will encourage the inclusion of personal retirement accounts in any legislation aimed at Social Security reform. His education platform earmarks substantial federal funds for the establishment of 2,000 new charter schools nationwide and tuition assistance that allows for parents to send their children to the public or private school of their choice.

On a general note, Bush’s campaign strategy will present him to the voters as a proven leader who has enacted progressive policies in his home state of Texas that can benefit the nation if he is elected. A recurring theme of his campaign rhetoric and advertising will be that he brings fresh ideas and a new perspective to The White House that will benefit working families. In his attack of Gore, he will remind the voters of the alleged campaign finance violations that occurred in the ‘96 campaign. He will also attempt to galvanize support by portraying Gore as an extension of Clinton from a policy and character standpoint in an effort to garner the support of those to whom character is very important.

Now that the candidates have been determined, their running mate options explored, and campaign strategies dissected, the final consideration at this stage of the campaign is what constituency will provide the winning margin for Gore or Bush. As stated earlier, the polls suggest that single digits separate Gore and Bush. This fact underscores the importance of courting and mobilizing key constituencies. In the 1996 election, the constituency due jour was the “soccer mom”, a constituency that propelled Clinton/Gore to victory. This year the prime constituency will be the McCain supporters with the combination of African Americans and Hispanics.

In his campaign for the Republican nomination, John McCain mobilized a support base that included first-time voters, Reagan Democrats who had been inactive in the last election cycles, and Independents. With his departure from the race, this constituency is “up for grabs.” The importance of this constituency is evident in the overt efforts of Gore and Bush to gain their support immediately after McCain suspended his campaign. In mid-March, Gore, stumping in the Midwest, actively courted ‘McCainiacs’ – his term for McCain’s diverse constituency. Gore also shed more light on his plans for campaign finance reform, an issue that McCain championed as he sought the Republican nomination.

Bush is adopting a different strategy in his courting of the former McCain supporters. One of the first steps has been damage control and developing a rapport with McCain and his former staffers. The campaign waged by Bush and McCain was wrought with personal attacks and animosity between the two competitors. Due to what they perceive as decidedly negative campaigning against their candidate, many McCain supporters may be reluctant to shift their support to Bush. Therefore, Bush must take preliminary steps to squelch concerns stemming from the contentious primary season before making an overt pitch for their support.

Another important constituency whose voting patterns could determine the outcome of the November election will be African American and Hispanic voters. Each candidate will face the challenge of courting these constituencies in an effort to galvanize support. In this quest, each candidate’s party has a history of support from one of the constituencies but not the other. Gore, a Democrat, has received support from African American leaders and elected officials. George W., brother of Governor Jeb Bush of Florida, a state with a large Hispanic population, stands to benefit from Florida’s growing constituency of Hispanic Republican voters, as well as the Hispanic Republican voters in his own state, Texas. When courting the other group, each faces a unique challenge. Gore’s efforts to woo Hispanic voters has received minor support to date. It will be interesting to observe the subsequent efforts his campaign staff will undertake to reach out to this demographic through the support of key issues including immigration and bilingual education.

Bush faces a similar challenge in reaching out to African American voters. One of the key obstacles that Bush will face is the overwhelming popularity of the Clinton/Gore administration among African Americans. In addition to this fact, Bush faces issues from the primary season that may make his efforts to attract African American voters more challenging. These issues include his appearance at Bob Jones University and his failure to call for the removal of the Confederate flag from the South Carolina Capitol building. On a positive note, Bush has secured the support of key African Americans in the Republican Party including. Rep. J.C. Watts, Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell, and Colorado Lieutenant Governor Joe Rogers. While the extent of influence that these persons will have on the election is unknown, their support and participation in the campaign will be helpful in Bush’s attempts to mobilize this key constituency.